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There’s a 91% chance that Daenerys Targaryen will die next season, according to science

These don’t really count as spoilers…yet.

But a data scientist in Europe has some interesting predictions for which Game of Thrones characters will bite the dust next season.

Milan Janosov is a researcher in Budapest, pursuing a PhD at the Central European University Center for Network Science. And he’s using the tools of his trade to figure out the odds that different Game of Thrones characters will die.

According to Janosov, we can get a better understanding of where things are heading on Westeros if we look at the characters as nodes in a social network. By classifying characters according to their allegiances and social status, he was then able to use machine learning to analyze the structure of the network.

Of course, he also needed to know a thing or two about how allegiances and social status have tended to correlate with character deaths on the show so far, and luckily there’s an abundance of evidence on that score — of 94 characters identified by Janosov as being worthy of the audience’s attention, 61 of them have already met their (usually violent) demise.

Janosov’s idea is that a character’s social situation is a good predictor of whether they will be killed. So by looking at the characters who’ve already been eliminated, and comparing their situations with the still-living characters, he has formed some pretty precise predictions as to who’s getting killed next.

And fans of the Mother of Dragons will be sad to hear it, but Janosov gives your beloved Khaleesi some very poor odds, predicting that she will almost certainly be killed in the coming episodes (a 91% chance, says Janosov).

Who else is in trouble? Janosov’s model also predicts a high risk of death for the Sandor Clegane — better known as the Hound — and also for Arya Stark.

Thankfully, fan favourite Tyrion Lannister is seemingly well-positioned to live out the rest of the series, as is Jon Snow. Which is kind of crazy, given that we all thought he died at the end of season 5.

We’ll have to wait and see if Janosov’s predictions come true. It would definitely be pretty impressive if he cracked the code. One thing’s for sure though: knowing this show, there are definitely going to be a lot more character deaths before all is said and done.

But until then, valar morghulis. And long live Tyrion Lannister.

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